Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
05/14/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six weeks of play, delving into the Chicago White Sox' laundry list of problems is like opening Pandora's Box.
Chicago (14-20) has not won back-to-back games since the final week of April, a feat the team has accomplished only twice all season. Offensively, the team is hitting a combined .230, which ranks dead last in the American League.
In Wednesday's 3-2 loss to Minnesota, the White Sox did all of their scoring in the first inning and the final 14 batters went down in order. They are now 1-15 in games when they score three runs or less.
And with that, Chicago remains 8 1/2 games behind the division-leading Twins, and the teams won't face off again for another two months. Manager Ozzie Guillen was clearly frustrated while talking to reporters after Wednesday's game.
At least one person is optimistic, and that's the guy who works directly with the hitters day in, day out.
"Right now, to this point, everybody is dwelling on batting average and says we are not hitting for average," hitting coach Greg Walker told the Chicago Tribune. "We are not last in the league in offense. We are middle of the pack scoring runs. Last time I checked, there's no penetration rule or tiebreaker in baseball.
"I don't look at it so much as where we are at. I look at the potential we have. You've never heard me one time say this team is not talented enough to be good."
One of those guys Wilson is counting on to produce is right fielder Carlos Quentin, who is now hitting .180 on the season after going 0-for-8 in two games with the Twins this week. Quentin was expected to be a key cog in the middle of the lineup, though he has not been able to replicate his 2008 season, when he hit .288 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI during his first year in Chicago.
Guillen said this week that Quentin is putting too much pressure on himself, and that needs to just relax and take good at-bats. On Wednesday, he had planned to replace Quentin in the lineup with Andruw Jones -- whose offensive struggles have been well documented -- but that plan changed when Jones was a last-minute lineup scratch with stiffness in his neck.
While Quentin and the offense continue to search for answers, the starting rotation ranks 24th in the majors with a 4.80 ERA. At the same time, Guillen has opened the search for another closer after Bobby Jenks' meltdown in Sunday's 9-7 loss to Toronto. Jenks entered the game with a two-run lead and wound up allowing four runs without retiring a batter. He has now allowed 20 hits in 13 innings this season and has seen his ERA balloon to 6.23.
Jenks did end up closing out Tuesday's 5-2 win at Minnesota, though Guillen has not ruled out the possibility of turning to left-hander Matt Thornton (2-2, 2.20) or right-hander J.J. Putz (0-2, 4.91), who was Seattle's closer from 2006-08 before an injury shortened season with the Mets last year.
END OF THE ROAD FOR HILLMAN IN KANSAS CITY
Nobody told Trey Hillman that managing the Kansas City Royals would be an easy job. On Thursday morning, that reality came to a head when general manager Dayton Moore replaced Hillman with Ned Yost.
Following a seven-game skid that dropped the team's record to 11-23 entering Thursday, Moore decided it was time to make the move to Yost, who managed the Milwaukee Brewers from 2003-08. He had been serving as a special advisor to baseball operations with Kansas City.
Hillman was in the third and final year of his contract. For all of the Royals' misery over the years, they haven't had too much success among their early draft choices. Third baseman Alex Gordon -- the team's 2005 top pick -- was viewed as a future cornerstone, but so far he has crashed and burned. Earlier this year, he was optioned back to the minors and was recently moved to left field. Luke Hochevar -- the top overall selection of the 2006 draft -- is 16-27 with a 5.85 ERA in 55 career starts. And the list goes on.
Brewers' general manager Doug Melvin credited Yost for developing young players in Milwaukee -- namely infielders J.J. Hardy, Ricky Weeks and Prince Fielder -- while also getting top production from mid-level players such as Scott Podsednik.
Ultimately, Moore broke the news to Hillman Thursday morning, and then gave him the option to manage that night's game against Cleveland, which the Royals went on to win, 6-4.
"(Hillman) said, 'I'm not going out losing seven in a row. I'm going to go out a winner today,'" Moore said.
TWINS READY FOR LITMUS TEST WITH YANKEES
The Minnesota Twins have coasted through the early portion of the season, boasting a 22-12 record and opening up a 2 1/2-game lead in the AL Central.
Now, the road is about to get dicey, as the Twins begin a seven-game road trip against AL East foes New York, Toronto and Boston, beginning tonight at Yankee Stadium. There may not be a more daunting venue across the league right now than Yankee Stadium, where the reigning World Series champs are 10-2 thus far.
Of course, Twins fans remember all too well last season when Minnesota went 0-10 against the Bronx Bombers, including a swift first-round playoff exit.
Under manager Ron Gardenhire, the Twins have won five of the last eight AL Central titles. Still, when it comes to the Yankees, one can't help but feel there is somewhat of a big brother-little brother complex at work.
The Twins catch a bit of good fortune this weekend, as they won't have to face staff ace C.C. Sabathia or unbeaten Phil Hughes (5-0, 1.38). These teams will face off again at Target Field later this month.
TIGERS SEND MESSAGE TO REST OF AL
While the Twins get set to take on the Yankees this weekend, the Detroit Tigers just wrapped up their early-season test with the champs. And they passed with flying colors, taking three of four from the Bronx Bombers this week to capture their first home series victory over New York since 2007.
With that, Detroit improves to 20-15, entering play Friday 2 1/2 games off the pace in the division, and 5 1/2 games ahead of third-place Chicago. Unless the landscape of the AL Central changes soon, it's looking like we could be headed toward a two-team race in the division.
The Yankees series had a bit of everything. Detroit scratched and clawed its way to a 5-4 win to open the series on Monday night, the same night the organization honored the late Hall of Fame broadcaster Ernie Harwell.
The teams split Wednesday's doubleheader, with the Tigers winning the front end, 2-0, behind seven shutout innings from starter Rick Porcello. In between games, about half the team decided to get mohawk haircuts.
On Thursday, Justin Verlander outdueled Yankees' ace C.C. Sabathia, as he threw 6 2/3 scoreless frames to lead the Tigers in a 6-0 win. The offense was aggressive in that victory, scoring six runs on nine hits off Sabathia. It marked his highest run total allowed in any game this season.
Now, the Tigers move on to face Boston in a three-game set this weekend, followed by two more home games against the White Sox before beginning a seven-game road trip.
TRIBE'S REBUILDING PLAN HITS A ROAD BLOCK
When a team makes the decision to rebuild, very rarely is it a streamlined process with the results steadily improving from one day to the next. When you're talking about young players getting their first extensive taste of the daily grind that is Major League Baseball, there are bound to be some road blocks.
The Cleveland Indians (13-19) are finding that out right now.
Matt LaPorta, acquired as the key piece to the Sabathia deal in July 2008, has seen his playing time cut dramatically as he's struggled with a .218 batting average.
Luis Valbuena, who is viewed as the team's primary second baseman now and in the future, has also been given more and more days off to clear his head. He is hitting just .159.
Manager Manny Acta had a closed-door meeting with young left-hander David Huff following Thursday's 6-4 loss to Kansas City, in which Huff allowed six runs in five innings. Huff is now 1-5 with a 5.34 ERA -- although those numbers would be worse had his last start not been rained out after he allowed seven runs through two innings.
Acta's message was clear: "command the fastball and be aggressive with it."
Acta is sticking behind his young guns because he knows they are the building blocks of the team's future. But still, that doesn't mean he'll always play those youngsters over veterans who are more productive.
"We can't lose track of the big picture," Acta said. "We're trying to find other players to go along with Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo for the long ride. We're still trying to develop these guys."
<< Reeling Revs hope to right ship vs. San Jose
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution host the San Jose
Earthquakes at Gillette Stadium on Saturday in a battle of two Major League
Soccer clubs heading in opposite directions.
Since the two sides met in a league
<< Lille hopes to hold off Lyon for second place
Lorient, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Marseille having already clinched the
Ligue 1 title, most of the attention in France turns to the race for Champions
League places on the final day of the season.
Lille is in position to grab second
<< Hillman not to blame in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't a complete shock that the Trey Hillman era ended
in Kansas City on Thursday.
The Royals had taken a step back last year following a promising 2008 that saw
them out of the American League Central cellar for the f
<< Stanley Cup Playoff Preview - San Jose vs. Chicago
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Finally, the San Jose Sharks have turned in a postseason
run that seems worthy of their regular-season success.
But, just because the club has finally made it past the second round doesn't
mean that the pressure is off the
Crew, Chivas clash before losing U.S. players >>
Columbus, Ohio (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Columbus is one of just two undefeated teams
remaining in MLS but, like the unbeaten Los Angeles Galaxy, the Crew are about
to face a spell without some of their top players.
Columbus defender Chad Marshall
Can Super Saver make it two in a Row? >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only one horse has a chance to win the
Triple Crown and that's Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver. The Todd
Pletcher-trained colt will take the next step towards racing immortality this
Saturda
Serie A title to be decided on final day >>
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Serie A title race has come down to the
final day with defending champions Inter Milan holding a two-point lead on
second-placed Roma.
Inter can secure its fourth successive Scudetto with a win at r
Nebraska extends women's basketball coach Yori through 2015 >>
Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nebraska announced on Friday that women's head
basketball coach Connie Yori received a three-year contract extension through
the 2014-15 season.
The National Coach of the Year, Yori led Nebraska to its
El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting