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10/29/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - First of all, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox and their fans on the organization's second World Series title in four years. They were the best team during the regular season, and were clearly the best team in these playoffs.
People can blame the eight-day layoff all they want, but the Colorado Rockies were nowhere near the class of the Boston Red Sox, and it showed.
And, unless you are a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation, I have some bad news for you. The Red Sox are not going anywhere any time soon. In fact, they may even be better next year than they were this year.
But, unfortunately, for fans of not only the Red Sox but baseball in general, Boston's win was upstaged by the announcement midway through last night's clinching win that Alex Rodriguez has decided to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees and become a free agent.
How insecure is Rodriguez? Is he that starved for attention that he had to make this announcement when it became clear that the World Series was over? It's really a despicable move. Why should anyone expect anything less from him at this point, though?
Instead of Tim McCarver and Joe Buck praising a Red Sox team that has now won eight straight World Series games, they were forced to talk about A-Rod, who obviously thinks he is bigger than the game at this point.
Even the sport's most honored and recognized team had enough respect to hold off on announcing their new manager until after the Fall Classic is over.
I don't want to hear people blaming Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras for this either. Sure he is a creep, and I am positive he was the orchestrator of it all, but A-Rod is 32 years old. He is old enough to make his own decisions, but he continues to be Knucklehead Smiff to Boras' Paul Winchell.
Now where does he go? The Yankees have said from the beginning they will not pursue him if he leaves. There are only a handful of teams that can sign him.
Boston is going to have an opening at third base, as World Series MVP Mike Lowell can become a free agent. Could the Red Sox re-sign Lowell and bring Rodriguez in to play short? That is possible, considering Julio Lugo proved to be a bust at short this year. But do they really want to tinker with a good thing by bringing him in?
Most people seem to agree Rodriguez will land out on the West Coast somewhere. I thought all along he would go to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. But someone mentioned the Los Angeles Dodgers to me last week. I could see that. The bright lights of L.A. are certainly attractive to Team A- Rod, but will the Dodgers deal with Boras after he spurned them last winter with J.D. Drew?
No matter where he lands, Rodriguez is about to play for his third team in six seasons, and chances are he will move again at some point in his career. How is that even possible? He is the best player I have ever seen and probably ever will.
Sadly for A-Rod, his Hall of Fame plaque is going to mention his record- setting contracts along with his unbelievable numbers. The one thing that could be missing, though, is any mention of World Series championships.
As a baseball fan this all makes me sick. Do yourself a favor and listen to Peter Gammons' comments after last night's game, as he was forced to talk about the Rodriguez situation. You can hear the disdain for Rodriguez and Boras in his voice.
Nobody argues that Rodriguez is anything other than great, but he really rubbed people the wrong way with this charade. Not to mention the fact that he comes off as such a phony. All along he reiterated the fact that New York is where he wanted to be. Yet he didn't even give the Yankees the courtesy of hearing any offer they may have made, and opted out literally the second he had the chance.
I hope the Yankees stick to their guns and get out of the bidding entirely.
Sad thing is someone is going to ante up for Rodriguez. And it will probably be a team you least expect, like the Texas Rangers were back in 2001. But, as Gammons said last night, it is "Buyer Beware" with him. There is a reason he has never played in a World Series. And believe this - unlike the way teams had been lining up for his services in a trade in years past, they will now be far less likely to take him off the hands of whatever club next wins his services three years down the road.
Enough about him, though, I am pretty sure we are going to talk about him well into the New Year. Today is the day to celebrate the Red Sox.
I grew up rooting for the New York Yankees and still do, but even I was happy to see the Red Sox win last night. Like the Yankees teams of the mid-90's, this Boston group is a tough team to root against. Unless of course it is Curt Schilling, who is every bit as phony as A-Rod. But that is neither here nor there.
Terry Francona reminds me a little bit of Joe Torre. He obviously brings more to the table than just the x's and o's. He knows how to deal with these megastars. Let's face it, these days the Red Sox locker room is not all that different than that of the Yankees.
And as I said earlier, this Red Sox team is not going anywhere. Dustin Pedroia is going to be the AL Rookie of the Year and a couple of his native Japanese teammates are going to be right behind him in the voting. Jacoby Ellsbury could be the Rookie of the Year next season, and if he isn't the odds-on favorite to win the award, right-hander Clay Buchholz probably will be.
Jon Lester is a stud and will probably take the rotation spot left by Schilling, who will no doubt bolt.
You mix those youngsters in with the likes of Josh Beckett, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and even J.D. Drew, and you may have a bona fide dynasty on your hands.
Speaking of Lester, how can you not get into that story? Here he was, last year at this time, with not only his baseball future in doubt but his life as well, after being diagnosed with cancer. A year later, he is the winning pitcher in Boston's sweeping World Series win.
That is what we should be reading about today. But instead, the focus of the baseball world is on the biggest phony in all of sports - Alex Rodriguez.
<< Curlin concludes year tops in poll
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin ended his
season as the top rated thoroughbred in the final National Thoroughbred Racing
Association (NTRA) poll of 2007.
The three-year-old colt garnered 17 of 18 first-p
<< Report: Girardi offered position as Yankee skipper
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees have reportedly offered
their vacant managerial position to Joe Girardi.
According to a report from 1050 ESPN Radio in New York, Girardi is expected to
accept the offer and could be of
<< Hamlin late race stall caused by water
Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Denny Hamlin stalled on the lap 324
restart of Sunday's Pep Boys Auto 500, it was assumed that he run his fuel
cell dry. Apparently what really happened was that it was water, not fuel,
being
<< Nets acquire Wesley
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets acquired guard
David Wesley from the New Orleans Hornets on Monday.
The Nets sent guard/forward Bernard Robinson, center Mile Ilic and cash
considerations to New Orleans.
Flyers defenseman Jones suspended two games >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Randy Jones was
suspended two games without pay by the NHL on Monday for a hit on Bruins
forward Patrice Bergeron.
Bergeron was taken off the ice on a stretcher in
LaBarbera, Brind'Amour, Ovechkin named NHL Three Stars >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Kings goaltender Jason
LaBarbera, Carolina Hurricanes center Rod Brind'Amour, and Washington Capitals
left winger Alex Ovechkin were named the NHL's Three Stars for the week
ending
Chopra up 61 places in world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Chopra finished off a two-under 71
on Monday to win the Ginn sur Mer Classic, his first PGA Tour victory, and
moved up 61 places in the world rankings to 141st.
The top 11 places in the new ran
Dayton takes over top spot in Mid-Major poll >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a 35-16 victory over top-ranked
San Diego, Dayton became the new No. 1 team when the Sportsbook Betting Lines announced
its Mid-Major Poll on Monday.
The Flyers snapped San Diego's eight-game overall win
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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