Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
08/26/2010 -
OXNARD, Calif. (AP) - Jon Kitna has looked pretty good this preseason, especially for a quarterback pushing 37.
Then again, he's well rested.
Tony Romo took every snap for the Dallas Cowboys last season, the only NFL quarterback to do so. That made Kitna the only second-stringer stuck on the sideline every week.
But Kitna didn't just watch and wait. He put his down time to good use.
Having absorbed 129 sacks the previous three seasons with Detroit, he spent the fall getting over lingering bumps and bruises. He became more familiar with the playbook and with his new teammates. He also encouraged Romo to keep going out, even for the routine handoffs at the end of blowouts.
``It's one of those things that when you get done with your playing career, you can look back and say, 'That was pretty special,''' Kitna said. ``Being able to take every snap, that's pretty rare. ... I was happy he got to do it.''
Kitna knows the thrill because he's among the handful of players to pull it off in recent years.
``Twice,'' he said, smiling.
Kitna and Romo are among nine players who went through a season taking every snap among quarterbacks - thus, discounting wildcat plays and other gimmicks - since 2006, according to research by STATS LLC. Their data by snaps dates to 2006.
Using attempts as the standard, STATS found 36 instances since 1990 where a single quarterback threw every pass. That includes Kitna in 2003 with Cincinnati and '06 with Detroit, and Romo last season.
Kitna's inactivity made him a bit of an unknown for the Cowboys this season. It was especially worrisome for team owner Jerry Jones because he remembers how the offense dropped off during the three games in 2008 when aging backup Brad Johnson replaced an injured Romo.
The Cowboys went 1-2, with one of the losses to a St. Louis team that lost its remaining 10 games. Dallas ended up one win shy of making the playoffs.
So after seeing Kitna against San Diego last weekend - 9 of 15 for 84 yards and a tying touchdown in the fourth quarter, with no sacks or turnovers - Jones declared, ``I'm going to sleep better about quarterback tonight than I've slept this year.''
``I thought Kitna did an outstanding job,'' Jones said. ``He scrambled out, had some pressure on him, and threw the ball out of bounds - that's what you want to see. You can't get that in practice with that kind of pressure. You want to make sure when you're 37, you've got your legs and he's got his legs.''
Kitna, who turns 37 next month, understands the owner being curious about whether age has caught up to him.
``Anybody who is over 35, you don't know - at any position,'' Kitna said. ``But I've been around some guys who've done it a long time. Warren Moon, he taught me how to take care of your body during the week so you can be ready to play on Sunday.''
Kitna came to training camp feeling fresh, not stale. Rather than having lost a step, his reaction time actually is faster because of his time with the team.
``It's the terminology,'' he said. ``We have plays that are called one thing here that meant something totally different others places I had been. So I had to reprogram my mind. When you're doing that, you get up to the line of scrimmage and you're not quite sure. If you're thinking about the play, then you're not going through the mental process of what you have to do once the play starts. Now, that's over for me. I can immediately draw the picture in my mind when the play is called and just play the game.''
That is, if you get in the game.
Kitna's last regular-season snap was Oct. 5, 2008. He missed the final 12 games of that season with a back injury.
The flip side is that the lack of wear and tear could extend his career. He's under contract through next season.
Longevity is a source of pride for Kitna, as well it should be. He's a former Central Washington star who wasn't drafted, was invited to only one NFL training camp, spent a year on Seattle's practice squad, a season in the World League and was the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year in 2003.
``I came into this league hoping to get one year,'' he said. ``My wife and I, we'd been married two years and we wanted to get out of debt. ... Going into year 15, I never would've dreamt that. So I don't even think much about how long I'm going to play. I just think that when the time is done, God will close the door.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Blake exits, Baghdatis advances at Pilot Pen
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champion James Blake was a
second-round loser, while top-seeded Marcos Baghdatis was a third-round winner
Wednesday at the $750,000 Pilot Pen Tennis event, a final hardcourt U.S.
Open tu
<< Dodgers hold on to beat Brewers
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Loney drove in two runs and the Los
Angeles Dodgers took a 5-4 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in the second of a
three-game series.
Andre Ethier hit a solo home run while Matt Kemp drove in one fo
<< Report: Nuggets to name Ujiri GM
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets are reportedly ready to name
former team scout Masai Ujiri as the new general manager.
According to The Denver Post, Ujiri, 39, was working with the team late
Wednesday to finalize con
<< Phillips suffers bruised right hand
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Reds second baseman
Brandon Phillips left Wednesday's game against the Giants in the sixth
inning after getting hit by a pitch in the previous frame.
Santiago Casilla had j
Sabres ink F Stuart >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Sabres have signed unrestricted
free agent forward Colin Stuart to a one-year contract.
Stuart skated in 67 games for Calgary's AHL affiliate in Abbotsford last
season and registered a car
Presley named App State's starting QB >>
Boone, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appalachian State junior quarterback DeAndre
Presley learned a lot as an understudy to the first two-time Walter Payton
Award winner, Armanti Edwards.
Now Presley will try to duplicate some of Edwards' success af
FCS Season Preview: Patriot League >>
Bethlehem, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colgate's free-spirited offensive lineman can
be more "The Gong Show" than "Dancing with the Stars."
While the Raiders have their eye on making the FCS playoffs this season, junior
Kevin Morgan doesn't always
U.S. set to kick off Worlds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States National Team will kick off the 2010 FIBA
World Championship in Istanbul, Turkey on Saturday when they take on Croatia
in Group B play.
Team USA, which is led by defending NBA scoring champion Kevin Duran
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout
An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.
Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off. Randy was not impressed though. Paula thought he started off fantastic. "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either.
Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed. Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact. He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition.
Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula. Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.
Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next. Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential. Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell. He sang "Careless Whisper".
22 year old Chris Richardson was up next. He was listed with +1100 odds coming in. He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great.
Nick was boring and pitchy. Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week. Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition.
Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds . These of course were the early odds. He was considered original for picking an "odd song". He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night.
Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good.
Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds. Great voice and a great sense of humor. He's a real standout. Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit. Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig".
Jared Cotter followed. He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition. The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good.
22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next. "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon. Though the judges felt he performed okay. Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.
Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition. He was the last to perform. He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start.
Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys. Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting