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10/28/2007 - Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmie Johnson got better as the day went on and took advantage of a Denny Hamlin mistake to win Sunday's Pep Boys Auto 500 Nextel Cup race at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. Jeff Gordon finished seventh and through seven races in the 10-race "Chase for the Nextel Cup," holds a slim nine-point lead over his teammate.
The No.48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet crossed the finish line ahead of Carl Edwards as a caution flag during a green-white checker finish ended racing. The win was Johnson's eighth of the season and 31st of his Nextel Cup career.
"We has like a fifth place car all day," said Johnson. "Then Chad (Knaus) made the call and the caution worked in our favor...I have to thank everyone in the race shop for giving us great race cars. Now we are within striking distance."
Greg Biffle brought the field to the green flag after capturing his fourth career pole on Friday. But soon after the start, Kurt Busch, who started on the outside of the front row, charged past Biffle for the lead.
And of course the two Hendrick superstars always seem to be moving up and early on today it was no different. Johnson and Gordon started sixth and eighth, but after 20 laps were third and fourth, respectively.
Contrary to yesterday's Busch Series race that had a record 25 caution flags, the first yellow didn't come out to lap 33 when Juan Pablo Montoya spun after his right-front tire blew.
Martin Truex Jr.'s No.1 Chevrolet was much improved after the initial stop and he caught Busch on lap 55 and passed him the following lap. Just after the pass, Montoya blew a second right-front tire to bring out another caution flag.
David Gilliland spun down the back straight on lap 64 and collected Mark Martin to bring out another caution flag. There was enough debris all over the track that NASCAR signaled for a red flag to clean it up.
It was a short stoppage and then they got back to racing with eight "Chase" drivers in the top-10 as the field passed the 75-lap mark. It was still Busch and Truex Jr. at the top by more than two seconds over Kyle Busch, Johnson and Biffle.
On the next stop, Kurt Busch's crew had a lug nut problem and he returned to the track all the way back in 13th place. Truex Jr.'s team had no such problem and he took over the top spot. But Kurt Busch quickly passed the slower cars around him and returned to the leaders.
In the race-within-the-race, after 125 laps Gordon and Johnson were cruising in the top-10, but Clint Bowyer was struggling to get the handling right and was mired in 28th place.
By lap 144, Kurt Busch slipped past brother Kyle Busch into second place. But he was still more than four seconds behind leader Truex Jr. who had flat checked out from the field.
Then David Ragan had a tire blow and Truex Jr.'s big lead was erased in a heartbeat.
Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch were still showing the way at lap 163, the mid-point of the race. On the next caution flag stop, Bowyer's No.07 crew took a chance by taking only right-side tires and the move pushed him up 13 places in the standings to fourth. But it would remain to be seen if he could stay up there against all the cars who took four tires.
On lap 174 Kurt Busch returned to the lead for the first time since his problem on pit road, passing his younger brother on the low side. Truex Jr. followed Kurt into second place and two laps later he slid right past him for the lead.
The trio of Truex Jr. and the Busch brothers were clearly the best cars on the track, opening up a couple of seconds on Denny Hamlin, who was now in fourth. Bowyer, as expected, began to backslid right from the start of the run, falling back out of the top-10 on lap 187.
Around the 200-lap mark, Kasey Kahne showed enough speed to join the trio who had dominated the first part of the race. He pulled into second behind Truex Jr., but he wasn't catching him. The No.1 DEI Chevrolet was building his lead - to 1.674 seconds on lap 206.
With 100 laps remaining, the three title contenders sat in sixth (Johnson), 14th (Bowyer) and 20th (Gordon).
Kahne had the lead on a caution flag restart with 87 laps to go, but Kyle Busch didn't like where he was in seconds and by the time they came out of turn one the No.5 Chevy held the lead. Busch immediately broke away from Truex Jr. putting 10 lengths between the top two cars.
Seventy-five laps to go and it was still Kyle Busch, Truex Jr. and Kahne. But lurking just behind and getting better with each pit stop was Johnson in fourth. It has been the No.48 team's strategy all season to be at its best after the final stop. Meanwhile, Gordon was also climbing the charts, but at a much slower rate than his younger teammate, he was up to 12th place.
Truex Jr. passed Kahne with 72 laps to go, but he was having trouble staying with Kyle Busch. The margin was 2.910 seconds with 70 laps remaining. He also had Johnson in his rearview mirror as the No.48 Chevy got around Kahne for third place.
Ryan Newman's engine blew up with 57 laps to go and it set up possibly the final stops for all the leaders. They returned to the track with Truex Jr. leading Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Johnson. And the No.24 Hendrick Motorsports team had a good stop getting Gordon out in eighth place.
The restart was with 53 laps, possibly a few laps more than most teams could make on one tank of fuel. They would need some caution flags or very good fuel conservation to make it to the checkered flag with making another stop.
Again, Kyle Busch was quick and passed both Kurt and Truex Jr. by lap 280 - 45 to go. At lap 300 Busch's lead over Kenseth was about one second. But Kenseth was charging, apparently not worried about fuel.
Thirteen laps to go and Kenseth was right on Kyle Busch's rear bumper. Then with seven laps to go Johnny Sauter blew a tire and the fuel problems were not relevant anymore.
All the leaders pitted for tires and a splash of fuel except Denny Hamlin who stayed out. Kyle Busch had a problem on pit road when the jackman slipped up and when Chad Knaus saw it he decided that Johnson would take just two tires to grab second place on the track. Behind them were Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray and Reed Sorenson.
The green came down with four laps to go and Hamlin stalled just before the start/finish line. Truex Jr. couldn't see it happening because he was stuck to Kyle Busch's rear bumper and when Busch barely avoided Hamlin, Truex Jr. could not - slamming into the back of the No.11 Chevy to bring out the caution flag and end his day.
Meanwhile, Johnson inherited the lead with Carl Edwards and "Junior" just behind as NASCAR set up for the green-white-checker finish.
When Johnson saw the final green flag drop he took off. He was already five lengths ahead when Earnhardt Jr. lost a wheel, slammed into McMurray and brought out the checkered flag to end the race. It short circuited what should have been a great finish.
Sorenson, Kenseth and Jeff Burton completed the top-five.
"For us to come back to a seventh-place finish, it could have been a lot worse than that," said Gordon.
The series next travels to the Texas Motor Speedway on November 4th.
<< Lyon extends lead atop Ligue 1 table
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Olympique Lyon earned a hard fought 3-2
victory at Paris St Germain Sunday to extend its lead atop the Ligue 1 table
to four points over Nancy - which has a game in hand - and Rennes.
Twenty-year-old
<< Buffalo QB Edwards leaves game in third quarter
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Bills quarterback Trent Edwards
left late in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the New York Jets with
an apparent wrist injury.
Edwards threw a pair of incompletions that stalled a
<< Colorado topples Minnesota to remain unbeaten at home
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Smyth had a goal and an assist to lead
Colorado past the Minnesota Wild, 3-1, at the Pepsi Center.
Joe Sakic recorded a pair of assists for the Avalanche, who remain undefeated
at home and have won
<< Rams continue to be plagued with injuries as they lose again
ST. LOUIS (AP) -Just when it looked like the winless Rams were starting to get healthy, several key players were banged up in Sunday's 27-20 loss to Cleveland.Running back Steven Jackson, who returned to the lineup after missing a month with a groin
Rivers, defense carry San Diego over Houston >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philip Rivers threw for three touchdowns, and
Antonio Cromartie added two defensive touchdowns as San Diego routed Houston,
35-10, at Qualcomm Stadium.
The Chargers (4-3) responded in a big way after a harro
SMU fires Bennett >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Southern Methodist University announced that
head football coach Phil Bennett will not return for the 2008 season.
SMU Director of Athletics Steve Orsini did say that Bennett will serve as
head coach fo
Line of Scrimmage: Seven Teams to Fight Over Three College QBs >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Is it too early to start talking about the
Draft? Not if you're a fan of the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, or
Chicago Bears, three teams with seasons going nowhere largely as a result of
quarterback pla
Ohio State, Boston College hold on to top spots in BCS >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rare weekend without a major upset came and
went in college football, restoring some sense to a crazy season, and it was
evident in the few changes in the latest BCS standings, as the top seven teams
all rem
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.
Seriously.
The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.
The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.
Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."
The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.
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