Rebels and Aztecs seek MWC crown in Sin City

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shooting for their third championship in the last four years and the fourth overall, the UNLV Runnin' Rebels are into the title game of the Mountain West Conference Tournament today and will face the San Diego State Aztecs for the right to head to the NCAA Tournament.

Several bubbles burst around the nation on Friday as it became evident that the MWC would be sending no less than three programs to the NCAA Tournament, assuming the selection committee doesn't refuse admission to a pair of teams ranked in the top-15.

UNLV, the third seed in the 11th annual MWC Tournament and the host school for this year's event, gained access to the championship round on Friday night when it defeated the 14th-ranked and second-seeded BYU Cougars for the second time this season with a 70-66 triumph at the Thomas & Mack Center. The victory was the sixth in a row for UNLV, owners of a conference-record four tourney titles. The Rebels defeated sixth-seeded Utah in the quarterfinals by a score of 73-61.

As for the fourth-seeded Aztecs, it was assumed that they would be one of the last teams to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament based on their success this entire season, but now the squad can leave no doubt if it can take care of business in the desert today. Losers in last year's championship game to Utah by a score of 52-50, SDSU took care of eighth-ranked and top- seeded New Mexico on Friday with a 72-69 triumph. SDSU barely made it through the quarterfinals with a 72-71 win against Colorado State on Thursday.

With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Rebels own a 32-16 advantage over SDSU, even though it was the Aztecs who posted a 68-58 win in the most recent meeting four weeks ago at Viejas Arena when UNLV was ranked 23rd in the nation. This game also represents a rematch of the 2002 MWC Tournament title game when SDSU captured a 78-75 win over UNLV.

Billy White was the star of the show for the Aztecs in their win over New Mexico on Friday as he tallied a game-high 28 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field, helping the program to shoot an impressive 51.9 percent from the floor. Even more impressive was the fact that the Aztecs hit on 10-of-16 shots beyond the arc and 8-of-9 at the free-throw line, considering the squad is one of the worst in the nation at the charity stripe. Kawhi Leonard, one of the top newcomers to the league this year, accounted for 15 points and 12 rebounds. Leonard remains the top scorer on the season for the squad with his 12.7 ppg. White is putting up 11.3 ppg for the group this season. As balanced a scoring attack as any school in the MWC, San Diego State has two other double-digit scorers in Malcolm Thomas (11.1 ppg) and D.J. Gay (10.3 ppg) as the group outscores opponents by nearly nine points per outing.

Leading by as many as 11 points in the second half yesterday, the Rebels nearly saw their chances of making it to the next round go up in smoke as that advantage dwindled to just a single point before the squad pulled out the unexpected win. Tre'Von Willis, who made a number of crucial free throws down the stretch for the hometown favorites, finished a perfect 6-of-6 at the stripe for his 18 points, while Chace Stanback tacked on 17 and Brice Massamba another 13 points and six rebounds off the bench for the victors. The defense allowed all-conference star Jimmer Fredette to come up with 30 points, but for the most part the rest of the Cougars were shut down. Willis has been the go- to guy on offense for the Rebels all season with his team-leading 17.5 ppg, thanks in large part to his 159-of-186 shooting at the free-throw line, helping the Rebels to make good on 72 percent at the stripe in 2009-10. Stanback is putting up 10.8 ppg and clearing a team-high 5.8 rpg, while it is the responsibility of Oscar Bellfield (9.1 ppg, 152 assists) to get the ball into the hands of the right people at the right time.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Online Sportsbook Football Betting

LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP

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